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Post by Jaysports on Apr 10, 2012 17:06:41 GMT -5
I've never seen a year like this where there is so much talk of QB's going in the top 2-5 picks in rookie drafts. We are in a new passing era, so maybe that's it. Cam went off last year, are people chasing the next Cam or the next Stafford? Is that wise? Or, is this going to be the new trend for a lot of folks out there?
What's the Warehouse take here? Guessing it will be split pretty evenly from what I'm seeing.
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g
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Post by g on Apr 10, 2012 17:12:38 GMT -5
QB's value increase dramatically, NFL become passing happy league and 4.000 yds season is usual routine now. AR,Stafford,Cam,Brees and witness even good old Brady in 1st round. About next Cam Newton ? His name is RG3 imo
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Post by orangecrush on Apr 10, 2012 17:28:01 GMT -5
The old tradition of drafting RB's first is just that: old time thinking.
The NFL has changed and thus so has fantasy football. The NFL is now a passing league, period. And so, to be truly competitive in fantasy football you absolutely need to have an elite QB. For me that's Rodgers, Brees, Stafford, Newton and Brady, with Eli knocking on the door. Clearly, there are not enough elite QB's to go around in 10 team fantasy leagues let alone 16 team leagues.
So, for my money, if I had the 1.01 or 1.02 picks in this year's all-rookie draft, I would take the QB's (Luck or RGIII) without hesitation.
Just a few years ago, no one in their right mind would draft this way, but that was a few years ago. This is now.
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Post by overachiever77 on Apr 10, 2012 17:51:26 GMT -5
With the once every 15-20 year talent of Luck and the freakish ability of RG3, I'd have no hesitation taking them in the top 3. Even though the passing numbers have made a lot of QBs valuable, the elite guys still blow the doors off the others. It's time to rethink the way we draft.
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Post by burgandy on Apr 10, 2012 18:11:35 GMT -5
Everyone is correct here. I don't think it will be this way EVERY year, but there are 2 legit point scorers here in a league now that favors the QB. Double the impact if you are sitting 1-5 and need a QB. Luck and RG3 are not only top rookies but are ranking out in the top 15 for QBs. So not only are they rookies, but they are projecting out as high QB2s right out of the gate.
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Post by shamrock84 on Apr 10, 2012 18:26:02 GMT -5
The trouble for me is that QB's have an extremely high bust rate. For every Cam there are dozens of highly drafted QB's that don't pan out. I can see the argument for Luck because of his unprecedented hype/potential but RG3 in the top 5... no thanks. He's far more likely to be a bust than to be a stud.
I just feel like I'd get much more out of a RB or WR in the top 5 at least short-term than I would out of even the best QB (Cam Newton notwithstanding). I'll start considering them mid 1st but in years past wouldn't take them before late first early 2nd. I do like both guys this year so I'd probably consider them in the mid first.
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Post by orangecrush on Apr 10, 2012 19:47:08 GMT -5
Unless you get extremely lucky or are in a league of novices, neither QB will be there in the mid to late first. Just my opinion.
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Post by gambler on Apr 10, 2012 20:00:32 GMT -5
Somewhat related: In our mock PPR dynasty startup QBs were 25% of the top 16 overall picks. QB value seems to be on the rise overall.
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Post by Jaysports on Apr 10, 2012 20:26:02 GMT -5
A lot of busts and mediocre talent on this list. There are 5 elite QB's (Brees, Stafford, Cam, Brady and Rodgers). You could make an argument that only Cam and Stafford are players that were deserving of 1st round picks in rookie drafts based on perception at the time they were drafted. Rodgers went to GB and was an afterthought. Brady was a late draft pick and needed an injury to Bledsoe to get his shot. Can't remember the buzz on Brees when he was drafted, but I'm guessing he wasn't getting a ton of love at that time from scouts and FF sites. Different times yes, but we're really looking at the bust rate here. These are two of the all-time prospects (Luck/RG3), so maybe this whole argument is off. But, there is so much hype from the media and writers because of Cam last year that people are chasing ghosts imo. If you draft Luck and you get Tony Romo production for the next 10-years is that worth a 1.1 or a 1.2 pick?
2002 - David Carr and Joey Harrington 2003 - Carson Palmer and Byron Leftwich 2004 - Roethe, Eli and Rivers 2005 - Alex Smith and Rodgers 2006 - Cutler, Young, Leinart 2007 - JaMarcus Russell 2008 - Ryan and Flacco 2009 - Stafford, Freeman, Sanchez 2010 - Bradford, Tebow, Clausen 2011 - Cam, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Dalton
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Post by purplepride on Apr 10, 2012 20:29:48 GMT -5
2008 - Ryan and Flacco 2009 - Stafford, Freeman, Sanchez 2010 - Bradford, Tebow, Clausen 2011 - Cam, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Dalton If you look at this section, you will notice that the "bust rate" isn't quite as bad. I think QBs are coming more and more NFL ready maybe.
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Post by gambler on Apr 10, 2012 20:34:48 GMT -5
A lot of busts and mediocre talent on this list. There are 5 elite QB's (Brees, Stafford, Cam, Brady and Rodgers). You could make an argument that only Cam and Stafford are players that were deserving of 1st round picks in rookie drafts based on perception at the time they were drafted. Rodgers went to GB and was an afterthought. Brady was a late draft pick and needed an injury to Bledsoe to get his shot. Can't remember the buzz on Brees when he was drafted, but I'm guessing he wasn't getting a ton of love at that time from scouts and FF sites. Different times yes, but we're really looking at the bust rate here. These are two of the all-time prospects, so maybe this whole argument is off. But, there is so much hype because of Cam last year that people are chasing ghosts imo. If you draft Luck and you get Tony Romo production for the next 10-years is that worth a 1.1 or a 1.2 pick? 2002 - David Carr and Joey Harrington 2003 - Carson Palmer and Byron Leftwich 2004 - Roethe, Eli and Rivers 2005 - Alex Smith and Rodgers 2006 - Cutler, Young, Leinart 2007 - JaMarcus Russell 2008 - Ryan and Flacco 2009 - Stafford, Freeman, Sanchez 2010 - Bradford, Tebow, Clausen 2011 - Cam, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Dalton Sure it's worth it. You'd rather spend that 1.01 and 1.02 on Reggie Bush, Knowshawn Moreno, Michael Crabtree, and Donnie Avery?
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h8r
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Posts: 46
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Post by h8r on Apr 10, 2012 20:43:35 GMT -5
A lot of busts and mediocre talent on this list. There are 5 elite QB's (Brees, Stafford, Cam, Brady and Rodgers). You could make an argument that only Cam and Stafford are players that were deserving of 1st round picks in rookie drafts based on perception at the time they were drafted. Rodgers went to GB and was an afterthought. Brady was a late draft pick and needed an injury to Bledsoe to get his shot. Can't remember the buzz on Brees when he was drafted, but I'm guessing he wasn't getting a ton of love at that time from scouts and FF sites. Different times yes, but we're really looking at the bust rate here. These are two of the all-time prospects, so maybe this whole argument is off. But, there is so much hype because of Cam last year that people are chasing ghosts imo. If you draft Luck and you get Tony Romo production for the next 10-years is that worth a 1.1 or a 1.2 pick? 2002 - David Carr and Joey Harrington 2003 - Carson Palmer and Byron Leftwich 2004 - Roethe, Eli and Rivers 2005 - Alex Smith and Rodgers 2006 - Cutler, Young, Leinart 2007 - JaMarcus Russell 2008 - Ryan and Flacco 2009 - Stafford, Freeman, Sanchez 2010 - Bradford, Tebow, Clausen 2011 - Cam, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Dalton Sure it's worth it. You'd rather spend that 1.01 and 1.02 on Reggie Bush, Knowshawn Moreno, Michael Crabtree, and Donnie Avery? Good point.
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Post by Jaysports on Apr 10, 2012 21:41:58 GMT -5
Sure it's worth it. You'd rather spend that 1.01 and 1.02 on Reggie Bush, Knowshawn Moreno, Michael Crabtree, and Donnie Avery? Good point. Or, you get guys like Calvin, AP, Julio, AJG, Dez.
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Post by gambler on Apr 10, 2012 22:23:38 GMT -5
Or, you get guys like Calvin, AP, Julio, AJG, Dez. Or a guy like Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, & Matt Stafford
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Post by DynastyDave on Apr 10, 2012 22:31:46 GMT -5
I think this year a lot of people are going to be taking a QB early in rookie drafts. It'll be the Cam Newton Effect. Cam Newton blew up last year and teams will expect the same from Luck and more so RGiii. Personally, I'm not buying it, not that I will complain if I got either one, but my team needs a QB, but that's a different story because it also needs a RB. at 1.09 I'm counting on others to pick RGiii and Luck early. But I don't believe we'll see another Cam this year, and I have doubts Cam will repeat himself this year.
Every year, there seems to be some fad, whether it be a player or formation(Wildcat) that blows up in the NFL only to be squashed the following season(s). I believe Cam will fall victim to that and I think a lot of people will grab RGiii and expect the same and be highly disappoint.
You can take that with a grain of salt if you wish because after all, this is only my opinion based off of my gut reaction.
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