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Post by gambler on Apr 10, 2012 22:34:45 GMT -5
This is the year for elite QB talent at the top though. I see Luck as a slightly better Matt Ryan "game manager" type, and I like RG3 even better (NOT as a Cam style runner) as an accurate passer with a cannon arm and good instincts.
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Post by shamrock84 on Apr 10, 2012 23:13:30 GMT -5
Unless you get extremely lucky or are in a league of novices, neither QB will be there in the mid to late first. Just my opinion. I agree OC. And I'm ok with that. If they fall then they are a good value for me. I just don't feel comfortable taking a QB top 5. There is a ton of talent at WR and RB in this draft as well.
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Post by shamrock84 on Apr 10, 2012 23:14:55 GMT -5
I think this year a lot of people are going to be taking a QB early in rookie drafts. It'll be the Cam Newton Effect. Cam Newton blew up last year and teams will expect the same from Luck and more so RGiii. Personally, I'm not buying it, not that I will complain if I got either one, but my team needs a QB, but that's a different story because it also needs a RB. at 1.09 I'm counting on others to pick RGiii and Luck early. But I don't believe we'll see another Cam this year, and I have doubts Cam will repeat himself this year. Every year, there seems to be some fad, whether it be a player or formation(Wildcat) that blows up in the NFL only to be squashed the following season(s). I believe Cam will fall victim to that and I think a lot of people will grab RGiii and expect the same and be highly disappoint. You can take that with a grain of salt if you wish because after all, this is only my opinion based off of my gut reaction. You and I are on the same page tux. Nicely put.
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mms
Newbie
Posts: 2
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Post by mms on Apr 11, 2012 12:40:58 GMT -5
This draft has what appears to be 3 elite players, Richardson, Luck and RG3. There may be others, but right now they're unknown. It's all about value IMO... with that being said Trent Richardson either needs to be picked at 1.1 or the pick traded if you're not a believer. I owned the 1.1 in two leagues and I'm personally not a believer (he's good, but he's no AP), so I packaged it up for Calvin in one league and Foster in the other. Value says Luck and RG3 need to go two and three in some combination. I took RG3 at 1.3 in one league, even though I didn't need him (I'm also an Aaron Rodgers owner). I fully expect to trade one or the other for a pot of gold at some point.
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Post by Jaysports on Apr 11, 2012 13:23:36 GMT -5
This draft has what appears to be 3 elite players, Richardson, Luck and RG3. There may be others, but right now they're unknown. It's all about value IMO... with that being said Trent Richardson either needs to be picked at 1.1 or the pick traded if you're not a believer. I owned the 1.1 in two leagues and I'm personally not a believer (he's good, but he's no AP), so I packaged it up for Calvin in one league and Foster in the other. Value says Luck and RG3 need to go two and three in some combination. I took RG3 at 1.3 in one league, even though I didn't need him (I'm also an Aaron Rodgers owner). I fully expect to trade one or the other for a pot of gold at some point. Good take there. Welcome to the forum mms, another member with well thought out opinions!
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Post by orangecrush on Apr 11, 2012 15:12:34 GMT -5
To illustrate my point about the ever increasing value of QB's in fantasy football, here are the top point scorers in the five dynasty leagues I was in in 2011:
1) Offense only, PPR, 10 team league: 8 out of the top 10 point scorers were QB's 2) Offense only, PPR, 10 team league: 9 out of the top 10 point scorers were QB's 3) Offense only, Non-PPR, 10 team league: 10 out of the top 10 point scorers were QB's 4) IDP, PPR, 16 team league: 9 out of the top 10 point scorers were QB's 5) IDP, PPR, 16 team league: 5 out of the top 10 point scorers were QB's (very balanced IDP scoring, 5 of the top 6 were QB's)
The average point difference between the #1 scorer (QB in all cases) and the first position player for all five leagues was 151.3 points. If you have an elite QB, and the rest of your team is good to above average, it will be very hard for another team without an elite QB to make up this point difference.
If just being competitive in your league is your goal, then you can do that with an average QB. However, if your goal is to win championships, then you must have an elite QB, IMO.
Very rarely is anyone going to trade you an elite QB, so the only way to get one is to draft one. I truly believe the top two QB's in this years NFL draft will be elite and have little to no chance of busting.
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Post by Jaysports on Apr 11, 2012 17:37:05 GMT -5
To illustrate my point about the ever increasing value of QB's in fantasy football, here are the top point scorers in the five dynasty leagues I was in in 2011: 1) Offense only, PPR, 10 team league: 8 out of the top 10 point scorers were QB's 2) Offense only, PPR, 10 team league: 9 out of the top 10 point scorers were QB's 3) Offense only, Non-PPR, 10 team league: 10 out of the top 10 point scorers were QB's 4) IDP, PPR, 16 team league: 9 out of the top 10 point scorers were QB's 5) IDP, PPR, 16 team league: 5 out of the top 10 point scorers were QB's (very balanced IDP scoring, 5 of the top 6 were QB's) The average point difference between the #1 scorer (QB in all cases) and the first position player for all five leagues was 151.3 points. If you have an elite QB, and the rest of your team is good to above average, it will be very hard for another team without an elite QB to make up this point difference. If just being competitive in your league is your goal, then you can do that with an average QB. However, if your goal is to win championships, then you must have an elite QB, IMO. Very rarely is anyone going to trade you an elite QB, so the only way to get one is to draft one. I truly believe the top two QB's in this years NFL draft will be elite and have little to no chance of busting. OC, I hear this argument quite a bit, but I have to disagree with you here. IMO you can never compare QB scoring to RB/WR/TE as they are not comparable. You really have to compare QB's to QB's as we all know that QB's will naturally score more points by default. The next thing is that while your QB is scoring 10 points more per game than me the RB's and WR's I drafted are off-setting that difference. See, you take a QB round 1 while I take a RB. Your first RB which is after round 2 at the earliest compared to my RB loses in PPG in theory. In round 2 you take a RB while I take a WR. My WR in theory will be better than your first WR in theory based solely on draft spots. Then, in round 3 I draft BPA and let's say I go RB while you go WR. Well, my 2nd RB in theory will be better than your 2nd RB which you haven't drafted yet. It goes on and on but only until I draft my QB. So, in theory, I'm one spot ahead of you at almost every non QB position which makes up that 10ppg gap and maybe more. There are a lot of variable here, but that is the gist. JMO. Here are the top 12 QB's ppg from last season from one of my leagues, just for comparison's sake. 1-Rodgers - 472 points and 32 ppg 2-Brees - 478 points and 30 ppg 3-Brady - 445 and 28 4-Cam - 423 and 26 5-Stafford - 419 and 26 6-Eli - 345 and 22 7-Romo - 340 and 21 8 - Vick - 274 and 21 9 - Ryan - 335 and 21 10-Rivers - 313 and 20 11-Schaub - 194 and 19 12-Roethe - 271 and 18
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Post by burgandy on Apr 11, 2012 17:42:36 GMT -5
That is how I view it as well. The key is to draft where on paper you have the least amount of points to make up by position or the most possible points to gain.
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Post by orangecrush on Apr 12, 2012 7:55:44 GMT -5
I understand value based drafting, Jaysports, and I normally use this strategy in drafting. I agree with your assessment, but that's not exactly where I was going with my argument.
The title of the thread is "How early is too early to take a QB in a rookie draft". All I'm saying is that I would take Luck or RGIII before any position player in this year's all-rookie draft in a 16 team league due to the scarcity of elite QB's in the NFL and their importance to creating a scoring advantage.
Again, IMO their are only five elite QB's currently in the fantasy football (Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, Newton and Brees). If you have one of these guys, you have a decided scoring advantage over your competition who doesn't have one of them.
Having said that, I will give you that if you are in a 10 team league, and Luck and RGIII pan out, and all seven of the elite QB's get spread out over the league, the value of the elite QB would be diminished as most teams would have one.
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Post by Jaysports on Apr 12, 2012 9:07:25 GMT -5
I understand value based drafting, Jaysports, and I normally use this strategy in drafting. I agree with your assessment, but that's not exactly where I was going with my argument. The title of the thread is "How early is too early to take a QB in a rookie draft". All I'm saying is that I would take Luck or RGIII before any position player in this year's all-rookie draft in a 16 team league due to the scarcity of elite QB's in the NFL and their importance to creating a scoring advantage. Again, IMO their are only five elite QB's currently in the fantasy football (Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, Newton and Brees). If you have one of these guys, you have a decided scoring advantage over your competition who doesn't have one of them. Having said that, I will give you that if you are in a 10 team league, and Luck and RGIII pan out, and all seven of the elite QB's get spread out over the league, the value of the elite QB would be diminished as most teams would have one. I'm w/ya OC. My point was more from a start-up point of view or redraft.
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