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Post by gambler on Apr 11, 2012 12:14:20 GMT -5
Remember back when you first started playing fantasy football? There were a few firm rules to drafting. First among them was "always draft your RBs first". Then you had debate on if you could go RB/WR/RB or if you stuck to the established RB/RB/WR meathod.
Could we be seeing this making a comeback on a limited scale this year? Check out the lists below.
Stud RBs entering 2012: Foster, McCoy, Rice, MJD, Mathews, Lynch, Peterson, CJ2K, Sproles, SJax
Possible Stud RBs entering 2012: McFadden (injury), Forte (injury, holdout), TRich (rookie), Charles (injury, RBBC)
These are players that have proven they could average you 15+ points in PPR last year. Players like Turner and Gore both fell short of that mark and their situations are further deteriorating this year. Now lets looks at WRs.
Stud WRs: Calvin, Welker, Cruz, Nelson, White, Colston, Harvin, Fitz, SSmith(Car), Jennings, Nicks, JJones, Wallace, AJ Green, Marshall, Miles Austin, VJax, Bowe, Dez, Maclin, Stevie, Andre Johnson.
Possible Stud WRs: L. Robinson (averaged 15ppg and now teams #1), Garcon (new teams #1), Meachem (teams #1?), Brandon Lloyd, Antonio Brown, DJax (done it before), Wayne (one good year left with Luck targeting him?), Dem. Thomas (Manning)
So obviously this is just one guys list. You can add or subtract a player here and there. This is just a rough guess. Take a look at the number of quality RBs and WRs from both lists.
RBs: 14 WRs: 30
So this tells me a few things. One, that decent RBs will be hard to find this year and I'd do well to get mine early while the getting is good. Two, that there is a ton of WR talent out there and I'll be able to get some studs in the third and fourth rounds.
So is it back to the future?
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Post by orangecrush on Apr 11, 2012 15:26:07 GMT -5
I think your point is well taken with regard to RB's. Today's NFL has marginalized the RB position, and as a consequence the supply of good backs has shrunk.
Your point of drafting a good RB early, while you can is well founded as well. However, I would maintain, that the new championship draft order is now: QB/RB/WR/TE, and if you miss the top RB tier then go QB/WR/WR/TE and do the best you can at RB with prospects and high value backups after that. Quarterback should be the top position filled IMO.
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Post by gambler on Apr 11, 2012 15:43:46 GMT -5
Oh I'm a solid believer in getting a stud QB. Just think you need to get a stud RB as well. I used to draft stud WRs early and often and won with that...but now I'll be waiting for them
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Post by roadwarrior on Apr 11, 2012 15:44:17 GMT -5
I have no set routine. I go for where I think value is. Been in a number of Dynasty mocks and the first few rounds have been similar. Starts with RB's, but now seeing QB's (4 in top 12 picks in last one) going off earlier than I'd draft them.
Found you get great value on wideouts if you happen to get the turn at end of first round. Not a bad place to be.
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Post by burgandy on Apr 11, 2012 17:34:37 GMT -5
I have no set routine. I go for where I think value is. Been in a number of Dynasty mocks and the first few rounds have been similar. Starts with RB's, but now seeing QB's (4 in top 12 picks in last one) going off earlier than I'd draft them. Found you get great value on wideouts if you happen to get the turn at end of first round. Not a bad place to be. Thats it man. Its just value. Some people still make it a position strategy and there is still something to that, again based on value. RBs tend to be such a slim group of every year studs, that I def see your point though Gamblers, and it is a good thought.
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Post by Scorp on Apr 11, 2012 17:58:47 GMT -5
I have no set routine. I go for where I think value is. Been in a number of Dynasty mocks and the first few rounds have been similar. Starts with RB's, but now seeing QB's (4 in top 12 picks in last one) going off earlier than I'd draft them. Found you get great value on wideouts if you happen to get the turn at end of first round. Not a bad place to be. This is an outstanding reply. Last year in a major PPR league receivers were highly overvalued. I personally snatched up Brandon Lloyd who I had hoped to be Denver's main guy, Peyton Hillis hoping the Madden Curse would pass him by, and Jahvid Best who I thought would be 2012's version of Arian Foster in the 3rd round. Guys like Turner and Fred Jackson were taken much later. What I find interesting about this topic is the fact that there are some back to the future type WR's in this year's hunt for perfection. Steve Smith out of Carolina was elite before Clausen, and Colston was getting there. If you look at it from an NFL perspective, then teams like the Bears don't want to pay the man Forte because why not draft a youngster out of college and use the hell out of him until his contract's up. The shelf life of today's NFL runningback is a ton shorter combined with today's RBBC. It really hurts fantasy football because we can't seem to get elite at that position. There just aren't that many 3 down backs left in today's game. I agree 100% on drafting that Aaron Rodgers guy in the first, that's a freaking lock, but what about the value you get out of Tom Brady later? What about taking a chance on the improvement of the Atlanta passing attack with Matt Ryan in dynasty? When I see that number 30 versus 14, what I see is today's NFL has changed to a passing league, and that's where fantasy football will eventually go if the trend continues. You'll end up with 5 or 6 quality studs like MJD carrying the whole team, and dozens of game changers based on schedule and a quarterback's whim to win a championship. I think priority's still remain QB/RB and worry about the rest later.
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Post by shamrock84 on Apr 11, 2012 19:44:17 GMT -5
I agree with your thoughts gambler and it is pretty interesting that we are returning to our old habits a bit. It's really because of RB scarcity which is the same thing I remember preaching back when I started fantasy football in the 90's. There are a ton of stud WRs and to a lesser extent TEs and QBs.
Totally agree with what roadwarrior is saying. I like letting value come to me in a draft and capitalizing on it when it happens. I don't ever have a set plan either just go with the flow and follow the value.
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Post by Coin Flip on Apr 11, 2012 19:52:45 GMT -5
I still value WRs more than RBs because the NFL seems to be heavy RBBC for that position. I get what you are saying that the guys who run the show are the RBs to have which I cannot argue.
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Post by houdini on Apr 11, 2012 20:11:18 GMT -5
I'll draft value like others have said, but I still prefer drafting WR's as often as possible.....LOL.
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h8r
Newbie
Posts: 46
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Post by h8r on Apr 11, 2012 20:25:28 GMT -5
I draft based on how hot the player's girlfriends and wives are. Its never let me down yet
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Post by gambler on Apr 11, 2012 20:27:02 GMT -5
I draft based on how hot the player's girlfriends and wives are. Its never let me down yet Miles Austin in the 1st then huh?
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h8r
Newbie
Posts: 46
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Post by h8r on Apr 11, 2012 20:39:10 GMT -5
I draft based on how hot the player's girlfriends and wives are. Its never let me down yet Miles Austin in the 1st then huh? Every year...lol
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